Sony
loses. Their only serious hope now of remaining profitable is to put
everything they have in PS2 software development and hope that the
sheer power of their installed base keeps moving titles from shelves. I
don't know what kind of extra functionality (a la Guitar Hero) they can
get out of the system to inspire new buzz for what is now ridiculously
old, but I don't see PS3 doing too terribly well over here in the U.S.
It's $600 for the real version of the system. There's no "buzz" game
(How do you get buzz from games with ridiculous titles like
"Resistance: Fall of Man" and "Heavenly Sword?"), meaning there's
nothing stopping the masses from snatching up every 360 they can find
between now and the PS3 launch. Don't get me wrong: Sony could price
PS3 at $999 and it would still sell through the initial 2 million plus
the 2 million pre-2007 (I'll believe those numbers when I see them). I
think they just run into serious problems after that, when they've
utterly failed to distinguish themselves from a $200-cheaper 360 which
will already be accelerating into the 2nd-gen software straightaway.
Microsoft wins. They'll have the domestic U.S. industry by the
balls, supplanting Playstation 2 as the household System in the coming
years. Having shared rights to GTA 4 distribution helps a little (No,
no. A fucking boatload.) And, it's just going to be easier to develop
for and more profitable for developers to work on. That's the driving
force domestically, and you would be a fool to bet against it.
Nintendo also wins, with Nintendo fans coming out simply on top of
the world. The Wii will be awesome, and the Wii Virtual Console retro
downloads will inspire outright living room lovemaking. The pricepoint,
the funky control scheme, the unique software; who loves games but
refuses to pick up a Wii at its supposed low pricepoint? I heard Wii
referred to as this gen's "sleeper" hit, but that doesn't quite cover
it. These things are going to be HOT. Fucking INCREDIBLY hot, from a
"playable gadget" standpoint. It's the return of newness in gaming.
It's the return of family entertainment as envisioned by Nintendo Co.
Ltd in Japan's "Family Console" moniker in the early 80s. Most of all,
it's the return of being able to tell non-gamers or retired gamers "you
have to try this." Nothing, aside from maybe (really stretching it) the
DS, or DDR, or Eyetoy, has had this quality in literally dozens of
years.
My only real issue in that last paragraph is that I said Nintendo
fans would simply be "on top of the world." Some of them are, but I'm
not. In fact, I'm not really a Nintendo fan anymore. Whatever they say
at E3 '07 won't sway me, because they're too enchanted with their new
market. I can't blame them, but I also can't be bothered to care.
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